{"id":757,"date":"2026-07-06T19:10:03","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T19:10:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pioneerrelocationnews.com\/?p=757"},"modified":"2026-07-06T19:10:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T19:10:03","slug":"a-i-predictions-failing-to-come-true","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pioneerrelocationnews.com\/?p=757","title":{"rendered":"A.I. Predictions Failing To Come True"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong>Right\/wrong: <\/strong>&#8220;A year ago, the message from many business leaders was that AI was going\u00a0to wipe out jobs. For the past month or so, tech CEOs have been striking a more optimistic tone,&#8221; reports\u00a0<em>The Wall Street Journal<\/em>&#8216;s Katherine Bindley, citing OpenAI CEO Sam Altman&#8217;s comments several months ago that &#8220;we&#8217;ve been roughly right on technological predictions and pretty wrong on the social and economic implications.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/pioneerrelocationnews.com\/?p=755\">Casino Lobbyists Wrote a Letter Attacking Prediction Markets. Maryland Copied It and Sent It to Federal Regulators.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s not clear whether Altman, and his rival\/counterpart Dario Amodei at Anthropic (who recently went from warning that half of entry-level jobs could be demolished to citing how firms can &#8220;do the same thing with less resources&#8221;), are toning down their predictions because they&#8217;re trying not to alarm people, because they were in fact somewhat wrong, or because, a year-plus ago, they were trying to build additional hype in the arms race. Maybe all of the above.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, all of this will be hard to untangle in the future. Tech CEOs love blaming layoffs on A.I., when sometimes that&#8217;s not the case at all.<\/p>\n<p><span><\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>The Reason Roundup Newsletter by Liz Wolfe<\/strong> Liz and <i>Reason<\/i> help you make sense of the day&#8217;s news every morning.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<form>\n<div>\n<label>\u0394<\/label>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><label>LinkedIn<\/label><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><label>Email<span><span>(Required)<\/span><\/span><\/label><\/p>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div> <button>SUBSCRIBE<\/button>\n<\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<p><iframe id=\"gform_ajax_frame_26\" name=\"gform_ajax_frame_26\" src=\"about:blank\" style=\"display:none;width:0px;height:0px;\" title=\"This iframe contains the logic required to handle Ajax powered Gravity Forms.\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;This isn&#8217;t just about efficiency,&#8221; Jack Dorsey told shareholders in February, announcing that he was cutting his workforce over at Block by half. &#8220;Intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company\u2026.A significantly smaller team, using the tools we&#8217;re building, can do more and do it better.&#8221; Maybe that&#8217;s true, or maybe a bunch of people just didn&#8217;t seem to be creating much value. When Brian Armstrong cut his workforce at Coinbase down, he explained it like this:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>This is an email I sent earlier today to all employees at Coinbase:<\/p>\n<p>Team,<\/p>\n<p>Today I&#8217;ve made the difficult decision to reduce the size of Coinbase by ~14%. I want to walk you through why we&#8217;re doing this now, what it means for those affected, and how this positions us for the\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/pioneerrelocationnews.com\/?p=753\">Europe May Never Be Cool, but It Can Be Air Conditioned<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) May 5, 2026<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>As for the A.I. CEOs, &#8220;they may have noticed that the labor market is genuinely not changing (i.e., imploding) as rapidly as they expected,&#8221; the MIT economist David Autor told the <em>Journal<\/em>. &#8220;They may have realized it was simply bad business to say that your great new product will destroy the economy.&#8221; And CEOs of other firms that have deployed A.I. tools but are not developing A.I. models seem to, in many cases, be having a hard time figuring out which deployments are actually reaping rewards vs. which are wastes of time. Figuring out which jobs can be successfully automated and which can&#8217;t involves some amount of trial and error, pedaling and backpedaling. It&#8217;s not necessarily as obvious as some initially made it out to be.<\/p>\n<p>So far, some of the biggest transformations have been for coders. Becoming a computer programmer\/developer\/software engineer had long been a wise route if you had the technical skills to handle it. Some coders are profoundly helped by A.I. advances, and some amateurs are brought up to a higher level by A.I.-assisted coding. Even a wordcel like me can vibecode (badly) nowadays. To some degree, this industry is going to be made way better and more efficient, brought up to a higher level, by A.I. assistance. But some number of coding jobs may be lopped off, and a sector that once was thought of as safe and high-paying may plagued by instability. (I, for one, am afraid of that future, not because of high levels of disruptions in the economy but rather because I fear many developers happen to be libertarians, and that the spicy comments section on each <em>Reason<\/em> <em>Roundup\u00a0<\/em>might explode. Lord help us.)<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Scenes from New York:\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>It&#8217;s shark season.<\/p>\n<h2>QUICK HITS<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Love this, by my friend Inez:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote>\n<p>There&#8217;s a spot in lower Manhattan in front of Trinity Church, not far from the New York Stock Exchange, where you can see the sleepy village from which a great American metropolis grew. Trinity Church&#8217;s first building was constructed almost a century before the American\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Inez Stepman \u26aa\ufe0f\ud83d\udd34\u26aa\ufe0f (@InezFeltscher) July 5, 2026<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;Santa Monica is in recovery mode,&#8221; reports <em>The Wall Street Journal. <\/em>&#8220;It is trying to bounce back from a string of problems\u2014mounting liability settlements, falling international tourism and years of fading retail businesses\u2014that led the city of roughly 90,700 to declare &#8216;fiscal distress&#8217; in September.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;The [Democratic] party, which has often appeared rudderless since Mr. Trump&#8217;s return, is testing in real time whether it can go further in key races by running populist progressives who energize the base, or by choosing more traditional, centrist candidates,&#8221; reports\u00a0<em>The New York Times.\u00a0<\/em>I wonder if this will end well. Relatedly:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Socialist candidates are having a banner year.<\/p>\n<p>And yet, the dream of American socialism (or social democracy) is arguably getting *further out of reach.* <\/p>\n<p>Even as voters warm up to &#8220;socialism&#8221; as an abstraction, they are cooling on its fundamental precondition: Higher taxes.\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/PoHHHQZzC6<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Eric Levitz (@EricLevitz) July 2, 2026<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;Across major demographic and partisan groups, more Americans support than oppose banning those under 16 from using social media,&#8221; reports Pew. &#8220;About half or more of adults in each age group support this type of measure. Americans ages 30 to 49 are the most likely to favor it. Parents of a child under 18 are more likely than those without a child under 18 to support banning those under 16 from using social media.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>Every facet of this is a bit dark:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Daily Mail is hiring a US Influencer Correspondent to report on creators and ruin their lives. pic.twitter.com\/srmStsORlf<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/pioneerrelocationnews.com\/?p=751\">In Europe, Just Reposting Russian Propaganda Can Land a Blogger in Jail<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 EMILY SUNDBERG (@Emily_Sundberg) July 6, 2026<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Have the A.I. chiefs &#8220;been roughly right on technological predictions and pretty wrong on the social and economic implications&#8221;?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":756,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-artificial-intelligence"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A.I. 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